New study links current events to climate change
By SETH BORENSTEIN

The Associated Press

Updated: 9:13 p.m. Tuesday, Aug. 7, 2012

Published: 5:51 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 4, 2012


The relentless, weather-gone-crazy type of heat that has blistered the United States and other parts of the world in recent years is so rare that it can't be anything but man-made global warming, says a new statistical analysis from a top government scientist.

The research by a man often called the "godfather of global warming" says that the likelihood of such temperatures occurring from the 1950s through the 1980s was rarer than 1 in 300. Now, the odds are closer to 1 in 10, according to the study by NASA scientist James Hansen. He says that statistically what's happening is not random or normal, but pure and simple climate change.

"This is not some scientific theory. We are now experiencing scientific fact," Hansen told The Associated Press in an interview.

Hansen is a scientist at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York and a professor at Columbia University. But he is also a strident activist who has called for government action to curb greenhouse gases for years. While his study was published online Saturday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, it is unlikely to sway opinion among the remaining climate change skeptics.

However, several climate scientists praised the new work.

Read the rest of the article here.

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Replies to This Discussion

One difference between this paper and previous ones is that it's statistics about what's already happened, not a model. I take this seriously.

About "it is unlikely to sway opinion among the remaining climate change skeptics," I keep imagining one of those disaster movie scenes where the deniers are in their air conditioned office mouthing off when a tornado rips off the roof and sucks them away.

Exactly Ruth! Those skeptics will deny everything even while the earth falls apart around them.

Greed.  It all has to do with greed.

Right it does Lillie.

well duh, you mess with anything too much it malfunctions, everything that exist is essentually physics at work so if you change anything you will come with a different end result unfortenitly enough for us that end result is a bad thing

Right Ryan and thank for reading the study. Appreciate it.

This Is Your Global Food Supply On Climate Change

See that sharp rise in cereal prices in the second chart? That's not just from the Great Drought of 1012 in the US, but also the failure of the Russian wheat harvest and even fungal infection of grain in western UK from excess rain.

The red line is for the period 2010-12 and in the 30th month of that cycle we are seeing a 17% increase in one month – a steeper climb that was even seen in the 2007-9 price spike (green line).  This rise was seen even before the full magnitude of the US drought was known.  I shudder to think what the index will show next month.  The 2007/8 spike has been linked to a great deal of political insecurity and even credited as a driver of the “Arab Spring.”

It's much worse than I thought. Wow 17%!

Hundred-Year Forecast: Drought

Christopher R Schwalm sums it up,

But there can be little doubt that what was once thought to be a future threat is suddenly, catastrophically upon us.

These climate-model projections suggest that what we consider today to be an episode of severe drought might even be classified as a period of abnormal wetness by the end of the century and that a coming megadrought — a prolonged, multidecade period of significantly below-average precipitation — is possible and likely in the American West.

Look at the enlarged drought map and two charts along the left edge to see just how severe it is.

Went to check out the maps and charts Ruth! Thanks for the post.

What I say to the skeptics who believe this is a "natural cycle:"  What does it matter what is causing Global Warming?  If we can do something to prevent it or slow it down, we should do it.  And, of course, there is much, much we can do.  As I always say, it all has to do with greed.  I want mine and I want it now.

Well said, Lillie.  We're at least to the point that to say the climate hasn't changed, regardless of the cause, shows a serious lack of information on the situation.  The heads of those denying any change has occurred need to be removed from whatever dark location they may be stuck in, however, we don't have time for that.

I agree.  Let's move forward with finding and implementing resolutions as well as establishing methods of prevention that will be enforced.

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