Climate Model Woes
Are climate change models becoming more accurate and less reliable?
A modeler of biochemical systems points out that as more factors are included in a climate model, to make it more accurate, uncertainty rises, rendering it less predictive.
... the need to balance accuracy with reliability. This paradox is not as strange as it seems. Typically when you build a model you include a lot of approximations supposed to make the modeling process easier; ideally you want a model to be as simple as possible and contain as few parameters as possible. But this strategy does not work all the time since sometimes it turns out that in your drive for simplicity you have left a crucial factor out. So now you include this crucial factor, only to find that the uncertainties in your model go through the roof. What’s happening in such unfortunate cases is that along with including the signal from the previously excluded factors, you have also inevitably included a large amount of noise. This noise can typically result from an incomplete knowledge of the factor, either from calculation or from measurement. Modelers of every stripe thus have to tread a fine balance between including as much of reality as possibility as possible and making the model accurate enough for quantitative explanation and prediction.
While this conflict is obvious, I think that a system where the built-in feedbacks are almost invariably positive needs to include such processes even if they are not pinned down with fine quantitative precision. Comparing a model of the speed at which a molecule crosses a membrane to models of planetary climate destabilization under anthropogenic forcing is a whole other animal.
Tags: accuracy of climate models
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My first funeral as an atheist
Posted by Two Cult Survivor on May 21, 2013 at 11:30am 0 Comments 0 Likes
I posted the bulk of this on another thread, but wanted to add some context separately.
I finally confronted my faith and embraced the fact of my atheism late last August, 2012. Days after I revealed my "epiphany" to a few friends who knew me from another message board, my sister died from Lou Gehrig's Disease (which pissed her off because she hated catching a disease from someone she never f---ed).
THAT was my sister, understand? She was a beautiful, life-loving, potty-mouthed…
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Death of a family member
Posted by Larry Taylor on May 20, 2013 at 8:15pm 7 Comments 2 Likes
OK. I am venting. My mother died two weeks ago. She was a “god fearing christian.” Before her death she refused all medical treatment. She wanted to be left alone. She even refused to speak with my brother who is a methodist minister. He is a pip, let me tell you! I suspect she did not believe, but a woman born in her time could not and did not state her actual beliefs. This is the opening salvo to all christians; FUCK YOU! I had so many people come and tell…
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Unbelievable!!!!!!!!
Posted by Christy Stewart on May 20, 2013 at 2:17pm 6 Comments 0 Likes
This probably should not have shocked me as much as it did (especially since I am in Texas). I actually thought my coworkers were playing a joke on me because they know I am an atheist. Sadly, this was no joke. This actually happened.
I work in a psychiatric hospital. The doctors who admit patients are general MDs. (Psychiatrists see patients after admission) Yesterday evening we received several calls from irate parents. A new doctor who was doing admissions yesterday actually…
Continue anti-atheist rant from an Orthodox Mormon part 2
Posted by Debra Stevenson on May 20, 2013 at 1:09pm 3 Comments 1 Like
What do you think of this,
Nathan Young,
No Jason Torpy it is you that should be banned for promoting atheism, a belief that has no foundation in reality and zero proof behind it. The letter was a mockery of your atheist beliefs. I request to the board here that they remove Jason for his unverifiable beliefs in atheism for which he has no proof other than his arrogance. The letter was a mockery of atheism. Atheism is stupid and it should be mocked and it…
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