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We'll be locked into "extremely dangerous" climate change in 5 years if we continue as is

Invoking FDR: Where Is the Leadership on Climate Change?

Kelly Rigg's spells out climate crisis urgency. If we keep drifting along as we have been, in five years we'll be locked into extremely dangerous climate change. This includes (see the article's second diagram) 50% chance for collapse of Atlantic ocean circulation, one meter sea level rise by 2100, 60% risk the Greenland Ice Sheet will eventually collapse, 40 to 70% species extinction worldwide, and dieback of both Boreal forest and the Amazon rain forest.

According to the International Energy Agency, "without further action, by 2017 all CO2 emissions permitted in the 450 Scenario will be "locked-in" by existing power plants, factories, buildings, etc." Bear in mind that the "450 scenario" -- whereby the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere stabilizes at 450 ppm -- only gives us a 50-50 chance of keeping temperature rise below 2°C. Also note that a 2°C target in itself is not exactly safe -- it's now being described as the threshold between 'dangerous' and 'extremely dangerous' climate change.

Maybe this is the sort of thing Woody Allen had in mind when he quipped, "More than any time in history mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness, the other to total extinction. Let us pray that we have the wisdom to choose correctly." [emphasis mine]

Tags: Climate Change, Climate Destabilization, locked in to disaster, mass extinction, ocean circulation collapse, sea level rise

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Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Ruth Anthony-Gardner on September 17, 2012 at 12:51pm

One way that dangerous climate change will manifest has become clear. The most extreme rainfall becoming ten percent heavier for each degree Celsius rise sounds to me as if catastrophic flooding will become a yearly event in flood prone tropical regions. If a three degree rise in global temperature translates into 30% heavier rainfall extremes, those regions will routinely suffer nightmare deluges long before civilization falls in temperate regions.

...compared to other regions of the world, extreme rainfall in the tropics responds differently to climate change. "It seems rainfall extremes in tropical regions are more sensitive to global warming,"...

...although the rainfall increases in the wettest regions—or similarly, the wet season—the drier parts of the tropics … will become drier still,"... [emphasis mine]

Study estimates rate of intensification of extreme tropical rainfal...

From this

to this with 3 degrees rise...

Permalink Reply by Ruth Anthony-Gardner on October 3, 2012 at 2:39pm

Climate Central has a nifty interactive map showing, down to street level, which parts of the US will be innundated by sea level rise from1 to 9 feet. You can look up your neighborhood and change the sea levels, or follow a local river to see how it changes with different predictions. This will show which bridges are likely to go, and which roads.

Surging Seas