I've been posting about far from equilibrium conditions and tipping points in Climate Destabilization in another group, Hang With Friends. As folks concerned about ecology, I thought you'd like a link to that discussion. Climate Destabilization and Weather Variability

Tags: tipping points

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Perhaps another tipping point has been crossed. We learn that the alleged pause in temperature acceleration is due to increasing trade winds pushing heat into the deep ocean.

Unprecedented trade wind strength is shifting global warming to the...

A consistent picture is emerging in the climate research; increases in the strength of trade winds force more heat to be mixed down into the ocean, leading to a temporary slowing of rising surface temperatures. The next piece of the puzzle will involve explaining the cause of the dramatic, unprecedented trade wind acceleration. The IPO cycle can explain about half of the wind changes, but climate scientists are still investigating other possible contributing factors. [emphasis mine]

And we learn that trade winds are speeding up due to the decline of thermohaline circulation in the Southern Ocean, which comes from Anthropogenic forcing.

The Antarctic Half of the Global Thermohaline Circulation is Collap...

The failure of the huge convection cell in the Weddell sea has reduced the transport of heat, salt and ocean water towards Antarctica. Heat has built up in the tropical and subtropical oceans. The strong thermal gradient between cold Antarctica and the warming waters in the southern hemisphere's temperate zone and subtropics has intensified the winds around Antarctica as the jet stream was pushed closer to Antarctica by the expanding subtropical belt. Moreover, the heating of the tropical oceans has increased tropical convection. These processes have combined to intensify the water cycle, strengthen the subtropical high pressure areas, and increase the strength of the trade winds. [emphasis mine]

When you put these together: at least half of the cause of the "pause" in accelerating land temperatures, faster trade winds driving more heat into the deep ocean, results from Anthropogenic forcing. To me that looks as if another tipping point has been crossed, a new feedback that pushes proportionally more heat into the deep ocean has appeared.

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