Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by ROMAN ROMACH on September 4, 2011 at 9:08am

 

Why so?  The guy's been in the forefront on major issues, no?

Permalink Reply by Greg LeGore on September 4, 2011 at 9:15am

Science doesn't care about anyone's reputation.  And history shows that scientists, like all of us, can get comfortable and settle on a theory which does not stand up against new evidence.  Just saying he's not immune to have mistakes and so his ideas don't get a free pass from critical evaluation.

Permalink Reply by Brandon Havey on September 5, 2011 at 6:50am

You're right to call me on what looks like blind faith -- though I don't think that is what I am doing here.

I have preliminary trust in Hawkins, since he has such a proven track record... and that seems to me a rather different thing than unwarranted confidence or faith.  And yes, there's a little bias to my viewpoint since I am hoping for a radical shakeup in particle physics.

Still, having a little trust is not unreasonable in a situation like this, since I am not qualified to understand these early results yet.  (The same goes for many areas of unsettled scientific and medical research, come to think of it.)  If the scientific consensus eventually changes to something else, I will change my views.. hence the 'preliminary' aspect to this.  As long as I'm open to changing later, I don't think I'm being intellectually lazy here.

Of course, the whole concept of scientific consensus could be another debate.

Permalink Reply by Greg LeGore on September 5, 2011 at 8:22am

Brandon, don't want to come across as too harsh as I agree Stephen Hawking is far more brilliant than most of us and worthy of the benefit of the doubt.  In fact, I have tremendous respect for him - a Cambridge classmate of a friend was Stephen Hawking's personal assistant and physicist...the stories I've heard convey the incredible accomplishments of Dr. Hawking in a general sense and also in view of the terrible disease which has harmed his body but, fortunately for us, not his mind.

Permalink Reply by Brandon Havey on September 8, 2011 at 6:00am

Oh, no worries; it doesn't come across as harsh.  It is quite fair to raise a flag when it looks like blind faith or hero worship is coming into play, instead of logic and reason.  Though as far as heroes go, you're right, he's kind of an awe-inspiring guy.

I am also quite confident that there are plenty of good physicists who will happily call him out if he's making a mistake, too.  CERN is full of smart folks after all, and lets face it, finding (or proving you can't find) the Higgs would be worth a Nobel or two, right?  So there's a lot of active interest.

From what I've heard, its looking more and more likely the LHC >won't< find the Higgs.  If Hawkins could make his guess as to why he was right (and his thoughts on the implications) understandable to an educated lay person I'd love to learn them.

Permalink Reply by Brandon Havey on September 8, 2011 at 6:23am

Arg.  I misspelled his name AGAIN.  I know it is Stephen Hawking.  Sorry about that.  No coffee this morning.  Thanks for the reply, by the way.

Permalink Reply by Brandon Havey on September 8, 2011 at 6:19am

Arthur C. Clarke had a great quote on this matter:

"When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong."

If Hawking is right about the LHC not finding the Higgs, he kind of wins a 'two-fer', being right about his prediction AND beating Clarke's Law here concerning older scientists.  Presumably he is waiting for the final announcement/confirmation before putting forth his ideas on this.  I am unusually excited at the prospect.

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