The World's Largest Coalition of Nontheists and Nontheist Communities!

# A Moral Dilemma with Probability?

You have a situation, the exact parameters of which do not matter.

You have a choice to make.

Choice A will CERTAINLY kill 15 people, and has the POTENTIAL to kill *UP TO* an additional 90 people.

Choice B will CERTAINLY kill 20 people, and has the POTENTIAL to kill *UP TO* an additional 75 people.

You do not know probabilities for these potentials; it could be only 1 or 2, it could be 65 or 70, it could be the full respective 90 and 75.

What do you do, and why??

Views: 55

### Replies to This Discussion

Megalomania blah blah blah...Jackpot !
Seriously? I mean really? You're 69 years old.

Also, I fail to see how my last post in any way demonstrated a desire to exert power over others or to convey the impression that I'm somehow important.

But apparently, you took the time to read it. Hmmmm....
Annoy is cause.

The theoretical does not take into account the moment. Nightmare coundrums and impossibilities are more for the Stephen King crowd and the superstitiously gullible.

People may break out their slip sticks and all but I refuse to postulate on nonsense.
Choice A.

Ceteris paribus, the mortality rate for potential deaths would have to be greater than 1/3 (33%) for both such that Choice B is preferable. However, given the smaller definite mortality rates, a 33% mortality rate for the remainder doesn't seem likely.

As it stands, in absolute numbers Choice A has a definite mortality rate of ~14%; Choice B has a definite mortality rate of ~21%. If that rate is carried over to estimate the potential mortality rate Choice A has total deaths ~27, Choice B as total deaths ~36.

More information would be nice, but given only the information provided; Choice A is preferable.

## Support Atheist Nexus

 Donate Today Help Nexus When You Buy From Amazon

## Latest Activity

7 minutes ago
Michael Penn replied to Luara's discussion the fragile penis
11 minutes ago
13 minutes ago
14 minutes ago
16 minutes ago
Joe added 4 discussions to the group Atheist News
24 minutes ago
43 minutes ago
Luara posted a discussion

### the fragile penis

43 minutes ago
1 hour ago
Steve Shives posted a video

### Book Two, Chapters 17-19 - An Atheist Reads Ray Comfort

The series examining the books of Christian apologist Ray Comfort continues with a look at Chapters 17, 18, and 19 of Comfort's book, God Doesn't Believe in ...
1 hour ago
1 hour ago
2 hours ago