A Moral Dilemma with Probability?

You have a situation, the exact parameters of which do not matter.

You have a choice to make.


Choice A will CERTAINLY kill 15 people, and has the POTENTIAL to kill *UP TO* an additional 90 people.

Choice B will CERTAINLY kill 20 people, and has the POTENTIAL to kill *UP TO* an additional 75 people.

You do not know probabilities for these potentials; it could be only 1 or 2, it could be 65 or 70, it could be the full respective 90 and 75.

What do you do, and why??

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Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Langston on November 18, 2009 at 4:13pm
well, isn't that some sort of reflection upon you>?
Permalink Reply by Edward Teach on November 18, 2009 at 4:11pm
Do I know any of em?
Permalink Reply by Langston on November 18, 2009 at 4:14pm
No. That's part of the dilemma; you can't/don't know the likelihood of those potentials.
Permalink Reply by Jared Lardo on November 18, 2009 at 6:58pm
It sounded more like he means whether he knows any of the people that will/might die.
Permalink Reply by Langston on November 18, 2009 at 7:29pm
Oh. Damn. You're right. Well, in which case, take the question "as is". If it was not provided to you, do not assume it to be the positive.
Permalink Reply by Edward Teach on November 18, 2009 at 4:16pm
Ugh... I think I'd go with the 15. I don't think I'd feel as responsible for potential deaths as I would for definite deaths.
Permalink Reply by Langston on November 18, 2009 at 7:30pm
Yes, possibly zero.

SO, from 0 - 90. Or 0-75.
Permalink Reply by Langston on November 18, 2009 at 5:35pm
Actually, I would call it a scenario the answer to which is designed to reveal something about your reasoning....whether it could be called moral reasoning is arguable, I suppose, but I tend to think of who kills who and for what reason to be moral questions.

Also, though I took philosophy in college and am familiar with scenarios such as these as they were taught therein, I didn't get this one from a text book or a class. It kinda just came to me, though doubtless it is highly similar to those from the class/text.
Permalink Reply by Langston on November 18, 2009 at 6:56pm
While I don't necessarily disagree with you (because I'm not precisely sure what you mean), I'd like to understand what you're getting at.

Skin it and cook it for dinner????

And you're referring to the specific dilemma as I'm framed it here in the post as being the epitome of bad?? If that's what you're referring to, how so? I'm not challenging you or anything like that, just want to understand, seek clarity here.
Permalink Reply by Howard S. Dunn on November 18, 2009 at 6:01pm
Cowardice is the proper answer? Finding solution 'C' is the proper answer.
Permalink Reply by Ben on November 18, 2009 at 5:51pm
B. The lower maximum number is what convinced me. I'd almost certainly feel equally horrible no matter how many I killed (that is, turn catatonic with guilt) so the lower CERTAIN number is less of a factor than the higher POTENTIAL number.
Permalink Reply by Howard S. Dunn on November 18, 2009 at 6:03pm
No - because, while the question is, admittedly, worded poorly, there is the presumption that doing nothing will result in chance taking over (or something.) Unless doing nothing will result in no deaths; in that case, doing nothing beats suicide by one death.

See my reply to my initial answer. I still have no clue what your own death would accomplish.

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